Trouble's gonna come to you "Your Time is Gonna Come" - Led Zeppelin
Portland State Vikings
73 – 57
FINAL Neutral Lancer Joust
Cal Poly Mustangs
Dale E. and Sarah Ann Fowler Events Center (Neutral) · November 18, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread PRST -10.5 Home covered
O/U 141.5 Under
Money PRST -700 / CP +600
Model Predictions
Spread Total PRST win
Actual PRST +16 130 Won
Massey PRST -16.8 (-0.8) — —
Massey Totals — 144.8 (-14.8) —
Bradley-Terry — — 99% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 100% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ PRST -11.5 (+4.5) 139.1 (-9.1) 84% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML PRST -11.0 (+5.0) 140.9 (-10.9) 83% ✓
Baseline ML PRST -11.5 (+4.5) 140.6 (-10.6) 79% ✓
Baseline Plus ML PRST -10.9 (+5.1) 139.3 (-9.3) 79% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 11, 2022 CP 72 – 49 PRST
Dec 12, 2021 CP 61 – 58 PRST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings PRST CP
Overall 17-15 4-28
Conference 8-10 0-20
Home 11-2 3-11
Away 5-11 0-16
Neutral 1-2 1-1
Last 5 3-0 1-2
Streak L1 L20
Avg Pts For 70.5 63.1
Avg Pts Against 72.7 74.5
Massey 10.3 (#28) -6.5 (#293)
Bradley-Terry 3.24 (#4) -1.01 (#264)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.73 (#8) -1.38 (#260)
RPI 0.629 (#72) 0.279 (#331)
Shooting & Four Factors PRST CP
FG% 41.7% 42.1%
3PT% 26.8% 27.3%
REB / G 34.5 29.5
OREB / G 11.0 10.0
AST / TO 0.68 0.74
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 46.5% 45.5%
TOV% 13.9% 13.0%
ORB% 28.6% 24.1%
FT Rate 32.2% 15.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.9% 62.4%
Opp TOV% 22.4% 20.0%
DRB% 73.4% 70.9%
Opp FT Rate 20.2% 57.7%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.