Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 173.5 Under |
| Money | IOWA -4000 ARST +2200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +14 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -28.3 (-14.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 184.3 (-22.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -23.4 (-9.4) | 162.9 (-0.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -22.3 (-8.3) | 165.2 (-3.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -25.6 (-11.6) | 168.0 (-6.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -28.4 (-14.4) | 168.9 (-6.9) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 20-17 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-4 | 10-3 |
| Away | 4-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.1 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.4 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 15.4 (#11) | -4.1 (#254) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#130) | -1.25 (#283) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#120) | -2.23 (#296) |
| RPI | 0.650 (#57) | 0.285 (#328) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.8% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 40.3% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 40.7 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 3.50 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 8.7% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 59.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 35.8% |
Game Analysis
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