Betting Lines
| Spread | SJSU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | SJSU -210 NORF +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJSU +24 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | SJSU -7.9 (+16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.9 (-1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJSU -4.7 (+19.3) | 133.4 (-3.4) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJSU -4.9 (+19.1) | 131.4 (-1.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJSU -4.5 (+19.5) | 132.2 (-2.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJSU -5.1 (+18.9) | 134.6 (-4.6) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 11-3 |
| Home | 6-9 | 15-0 |
| Away | 1-12 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L7 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 68.6 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#200) | -9.0 (#321) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#188) | -1.35 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#169) | -2.25 (#298) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#143) | 0.316 (#309) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 33.0% |
| 3PT% | 26.8% | 18.9% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 37.5% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.1% | 49.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 24.1% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 45.7% |
Game Analysis
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