Free Nelson Mandela! "Nelson Mandela" - The Specials
St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies
60 – 61
FINAL Neutral Lancer Joust
Cal Poly Mustangs
Dale E. and Sarah Ann Fowler Events Center (Neutral) · November 18, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread STMN -7.5 Away covered
O/U 132.5 Under
Money STMN -300 / CP +300
Model Predictions
Spread Total STMN win
Actual CP +1 121 Lost
Massey STMN -2.5 (-3.5) — —
Massey Totals — 136.6 (-15.6) —
Bradley-Terry — — 35% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 10% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML STMN -1.1 (-2.1) 134.6 (-13.6) 56% ✗
Baseline ML STMN -1.0 (-2.0) 131.9 (-10.9) 57% ✗
Baseline Plus ML CP -0.0 (-1.0) 129.6 (-8.6) 49% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings STMN CP
Overall 20-13 4-28
Conference 9-7 0-20
Home 12-2 3-11
Away 6-9 0-16
Neutral 2-2 1-1
Last 5 1-1 0-2
Streak L1 L20
Avg Pts For 70.4 63.1
Avg Pts Against 65.6 74.5
Massey -4.0 (#253) -6.5 (#293)
Bradley-Terry -1.61 (#312) -1.01 (#264)
W. Bradley-Terry -3.59 (#343) -1.38 (#260)
RPI 0.318 (#308) 0.279 (#331)
Shooting & Four Factors STMN CP
FG% 43.9% 42.1%
3PT% 32.5% 27.3%
REB / G 29.5 29.5
OREB / G 9.5 10.0
AST / TO 1.00 0.74
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.0% 45.5%
TOV% 19.0% 13.0%
ORB% 30.2% 24.1%
FT Rate 12.1% 15.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.0% 62.4%
Opp TOV% 19.3% 20.0%
DRB% 70.2% 70.9%
Opp FT Rate 22.4% 57.7%

Game Analysis

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