Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | STMN -300 CP +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STMN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CP +1 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | STMN -2.5 (-3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.6 (-15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -1.1 (-2.1) | 134.6 (-13.6) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -1.0 (-2.0) | 131.9 (-10.9) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CP -0.0 (-1.0) | 129.6 (-8.6) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STMN | CP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 0-20 |
| Home | 12-2 | 3-11 |
| Away | 6-9 | 0-16 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L20 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#253) | -6.5 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.61 (#312) | -1.01 (#264) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.59 (#343) | -1.38 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.318 (#308) | 0.279 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STMN | CP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 27.3% |
| REB / G | 29.5 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 12.1% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 62.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 57.7% |
Game Analysis
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