Betting Lines
| Spread | FGCU -10.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | FGCU -550 HAMP +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FGCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAMP +7 | 177 | Lost |
| Massey | FGCU -13.5 (-20.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (+30.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FGCU -9.0 (-16.0) | 143.5 (+33.5) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FGCU -8.4 (-15.4) | 142.2 (+34.8) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FGCU -8.5 (-15.5) | 142.4 (+34.6) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FGCU -8.8 (-15.8) | 141.1 (+35.9) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FGCU | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 3-15 |
| Home | 9-5 | 5-9 |
| Away | 5-10 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 78.5 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#120) | -10.5 (#332) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#223) | -2.15 (#337) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#216) | -3.21 (#335) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#160) | 0.253 (#338) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FGCU | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 28.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 10.8% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.7% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.9% | 44.4% |
Game Analysis
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