Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -28.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +17 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -23.1 (-6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (+20.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -19.9 (-2.9) | 151.4 (+15.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -21.5 (-4.5) | 150.4 (+16.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -18.3 (-1.3) | 146.4 (+20.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -23.1 (-6.1) | 146.4 (+20.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 23, 2025 | MEM 88 – 67 ALST |
| Dec 22, 2022 | MEM 83 – 61 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-2 | 7-5 |
| Away | 7-6 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#34) | -4.6 (#260) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.74 (#2) | -0.79 (#244) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.07 (#2) | -1.12 (#238) |
| RPI | 0.672 (#47) | 0.458 (#223) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 31.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 46.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 0.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 37.4% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 9.6% |
| DRB% | 77.9% | 63.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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