Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -31.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | MEM -8000 ALST +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +22 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -27.7 (-5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (-0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -24.7 (-2.7) | 148.2 (-4.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -22.5 (-0.5) | 148.2 (-4.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -25.1 (-3.1) | 148.3 (-4.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -24.4 (-2.4) | 148.6 (-4.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 23, 2025 | MEM 88 – 67 ALST |
| Nov 18, 2023 | MEM 92 – 75 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-2 | 5-5 |
| Away | 7-5 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 9.9 (#52) | -12.9 (#349) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#38) | -1.70 (#312) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.07 (#24) | -2.10 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.630 (#17) | 0.425 (#301) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 34.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 39.6% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 16.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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