Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | MEM -5000 ALST +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +21 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -15.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (+4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -16.2 (+4.8) | 147.7 (+7.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -13.1 (+7.9) | 145.9 (+9.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -13.8 (+7.2) | 147.7 (+7.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -12.3 (+8.7) | 147.8 (+7.2) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2023 | MEM 92 – 75 ALST |
| Dec 22, 2022 | MEM 83 – 61 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-6 | 5-4 |
| Away | 3-10 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 77.6 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#102) | -6.3 (#265) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#160) | -1.18 (#267) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#142) | -1.76 (#275) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#133) | 0.468 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 56.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 64.8% | 63.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.1% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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