Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | MISS -400 SHSU +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +3 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | MISS -7.7 (-4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (-0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -3.4 (-0.4) | 136.7 (+0.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -6.6 (-3.6) | 136.4 (+0.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -7.6 (-4.6) | 135.9 (+1.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -8.0 (-5.0) | 139.1 (-2.1) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 13-3 |
| Home | 14-4 | 12-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#284) | -4.8 (#265) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#99) | -0.73 (#233) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.12 (#115) | -0.87 (#225) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#207) | 0.309 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 36.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 2.12 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 41.9% |
| TOV% | 11.7% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 16.2% | 35.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 76.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 14.5% |
Game Analysis
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