Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | SAM -10000 SCST +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +17 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -11.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (+9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -11.3 (+5.7) | 151.1 (+9.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -7.5 (+9.5) | 147.6 (+13.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -8.5 (+8.5) | 147.3 (+13.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -7.0 (+10.0) | 149.4 (+11.6) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 8, 2025 | SAM 82 – 72 SCST |
| Dec 6, 2024 | SAM 88 – 81 SCST |
| Dec 17, 2022 | SCST 62 – 61 SAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 9-5 |
| Home | 18-0 | 9-4 |
| Away | 8-5 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.5 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -10.6 (#336) | -13.3 (#347) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#253) | -1.35 (#292) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#244) | -3.04 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#210) | 0.354 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 29.9% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 22.8% | 16.7% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.5 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 34.7% | 43.9% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 36.7% |
| FT Rate | 12.7% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 61.5% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.4% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 60.0% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.1% | 37.0% |
Game Analysis
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