Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | SAM -1600 SCST +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +10 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -34.6 (-24.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (+4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -13.8 (-3.8) | 143.8 (+10.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -15.1 (-5.1) | 142.6 (+11.4) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2024 | SAM 88 – 81 SCST |
| Nov 18, 2023 | SAM 89 – 72 SCST |
| Dec 17, 2022 | SCST 62 – 61 SAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-7 |
| Home | 11-3 | 6-5 |
| Away | 6-9 | 3-16 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 80.6 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#116) | -15.0 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#218) | -0.30 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#182) | -0.47 (#190) |
| RPI | — | 0.500 (#10) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 22.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.7% | 10.5% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 0.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 24.6% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 31.1% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 16.4% | 29.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 68.9% | 62.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.3% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 91.3% | 63.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 41.9% |
Game Analysis
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