Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | SCST +340 SAM -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SCST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +7 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | SAM -5.1 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.4 (+6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -6.0 (-1.0) | 155.6 (+13.4) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -2.7 (-4.3) | 155.7 (+13.3) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -2.9 (-4.1) | 153.0 (+16.0) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -2.1 (-4.9) | 155.2 (+13.8) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 8, 2025 | SAM 82 – 72 SCST |
| Nov 18, 2023 | SAM 89 – 72 SCST |
| Dec 17, 2022 | SCST 62 – 61 SAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SCST | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 7-10 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#286) | 3.6 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#258) | 0.80 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.64 (#269) | 0.56 (#134) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#274) | 0.519 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SCST | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.9% | 57.0% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 64.7% | 61.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.3% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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