Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | SCST +550 SAM -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SCST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SCST +1 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -10.6 (+11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.3 (-38.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -7.9 (+8.9) | 153.6 (-30.6) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -6.6 (+7.6) | 156.0 (-33.0) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -6.3 (+7.3) | 158.1 (-35.1) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -5.8 (+6.8) | 155.3 (-32.3) | 33% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 8, 2025 | SAM 82 – 72 SCST |
| Dec 6, 2024 | SAM 88 – 81 SCST |
| Nov 18, 2023 | SAM 89 – 72 SCST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SCST | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-26 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 2-12 | 15-3 |
| Home | 4-6 | 13-3 |
| Away | 1-19 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L6 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.7 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -12.1 (#344) | 3.5 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.78 (#313) | -0.54 (#231) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.43 (#313) | -0.68 (#226) |
| RPI | 0.409 (#309) | 0.470 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SCST | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 26.7% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 31.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.9% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.1% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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