You'll work harder with a gun in your back, for a bowl of rice a day. "Holiday In Cambodia" - The Dead Kennedys
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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29–20 on winners spread MAE 10.3 49 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Bryant @ Boston University +7.4 114.3 75% 79–95 ✓
NJIT @ American University +24.0 136.1 99% 73–87 ✓
Presbyterian @ North Florida +6.8 145.3 73% 81–69 ✗
Furman @ Liberty +4.4 155.0 66% 74–88 ✓
Wright State @ Indiana +9.8 153.1 81% 80–89 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UCF +14.7 143.2 91% 44–72 ✓
Texas Southern @ Virginia +28.0 129.6 99% 33–62 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ UL Monroe -0.2 135.9 49% 73–63 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Texas Tech +16.0 126.6 93% 64–73 ✓
Alcorn State @ UAB +17.8 155.2 95% 77–80 ✓
Chicago State @ Southern Illinois +20.5 140.9 97% 55–71 ✓
Nicholls @ South Alabama +0.9 134.3 53% 102–97 ✗
Jackson State @ Tulsa +14.5 150.8 91% 52–72 ✓
UT Arlington @ New Mexico +15.4 145.0 92% 80–82 ✓
Missouri @ Minnesota +15.0 145.9 91% 70–68 ✗
Auburn @ Notre Dame -5.6 148.3 31% 83–59 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Arizona State -7.3 125.6 25% 69–71 ✗
William & Mary @ Omaha -7.0 154.8 26% 83–89 ✗
Utah @ Wake Forest -9.5 160.3 19% 77–70 ✓
North Dakota State @ Montana +14.1 138.0 90% 78–69 ✗
Montana State @ California +0.9 157.1 53% 63–60 ✗
Sacred Heart @ UMBC +1.5 168.5 55% 80–85 ✓
North Texas @ LSU +3.0 138.1 61% 62–66 ✓
Vermont @ Saint Louis -4.2 139.9 35% 78–68 ✓
Norfolk State @ Fordham -3.3 138.2 38% 64–77 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Georgia State +14.1 160.5 90% 70–64 ✗
St. John's @ Dayton +5.9 132.4 70% 81–88 ✓
VMI @ South Dakota -3.1 157.5 39% 81–85 ✗
Charleston @ Wyoming +2.6 146.6 59% 60–67 ✓
Georgia @ Miami +6.2 155.6 71% 68–79 ✓
Abilene Christian @ San José State +4.2 129.6 65% 77–71 ✗
Denver @ South Alabama +1.3 153.9 55% 75–82 ✓
Lindenwood @ Omaha +10.3 147.9 83% 72–70 ✗
Weber State @ Gardner-Webb -7.0 134.3 26% 61–62 ✗
Maine @ Presbyterian +8.3 136.1 77% 80–66 ✗
Houston @ Utah -10.6 134.2 17% 76–66 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Northern Arizona -16.5 147.6 7% 77–67 ✓
Notre Dame @ Oklahoma State +2.2 132.4 58% 66–64 ✗
Holy Cross @ Winthrop +2.3 144.5 58% 51–89 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Army +2.5 139.1 59% 67–58 ✗
Bucknell @ Duke +20.2 142.4 97% 60–90 ✓
Delaware State @ Grambling +4.4 146.0 66% 71–63 ✗
Hampton @ Kent State -2.6 169.5 41% 62–100 ✗
Colgate @ Yale +5.4 150.9 69% 50–68 ✓
Providence @ Kansas State -5.2 143.6 32% 70–73 ✗
Butler @ Michigan State -4.0 132.1 36% 54–74 ✗
William & Mary @ Air Force +6.4 142.2 72% 71–80 ✓
Utah Tech @ Youngstown State +2.6 142.6 59% 68–75 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Furman +9.2 164.4 80% 80–89 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.