Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -15.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Under |
| Money | ND +800 AUB -1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +24 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | AUB -5.3 (-18.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (-6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -3.2 (-20.8) | 143.7 (-1.7) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -3.0 (-21.0) | 144.5 (-2.5) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -2.4 (-21.6) | 145.0 (-3.0) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 13-5 |
| Home | 9-8 | 15-1 |
| Away | 2-10 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.0 | 83.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#310) | -2.2 (#217) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#248) | -0.35 (#204) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#257) | -0.40 (#200) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#225) | 0.469 (#207) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 25.6% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 45.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 20.6% | 38.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 10.6% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.3% | 35.0% |
Game Analysis
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