Betting Lines
| Spread | ME -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
| Money | PRES +110 ME -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ME +14 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | PRES -7.8 (-21.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (+9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRES -0.9 (-14.9) | 135.0 (+11.0) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRES -4.5 (-18.5) | 137.0 (+9.0) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PRES -4.4 (-18.4) | 134.5 (+11.5) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRES -1.7 (-15.7) | 134.1 (+11.9) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRES | ME |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 7-9 |
| Home | 8-7 | 8-4 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#132) | -5.6 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.90 (#8) | -1.71 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.42 (#6) | -2.65 (#326) |
| RPI | 0.729 (#33) | 0.312 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRES | ME |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 5.5 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 18.3% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 37.1% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.5% | 32.9% |
Game Analysis
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