Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | USA -333 NICH +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NICH +5 | 199 | Lost |
| Massey | USA -1.1 (-6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.4 (+64.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -0.8 (-5.8) | 138.8 (+60.2) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -2.0 (-7.0) | 138.5 (+60.5) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -1.2 (-6.2) | 135.5 (+63.5) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -1.4 (-6.4) | 135.3 (+63.7) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 9, 2024 | USA 70 – 64 NICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-6 | 10-2 |
| Away | 5-9 | 8-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#290) | 2.3 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#104) | -0.38 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#103) | -0.91 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#123) | 0.488 (#192) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.2% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 20.9% | 38.8% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.54 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.3% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 22.1% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.4% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.9% | 33.0% |
Game Analysis
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