Betting Lines
| Spread | WEB -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | GWEB +185 WEB -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GWEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GWEB +1 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | WEB -7.5 (+8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.2 (-11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WEB -5.8 (+6.8) | 133.5 (-10.5) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WEB -6.2 (+7.2) | 132.8 (-9.8) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WEB -6.8 (+7.8) | 133.1 (-10.1) | 32% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GWEB | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 9-4 | 12-2 |
| Away | 6-8 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#175) | 7.2 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#225) | 2.24 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#226) | 3.30 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#119) | 1.000 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GWEB | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.0% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 20.0% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 26.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 38.8% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 14.7% |
| FT Rate | 15.8% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 44.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 23.5% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 63.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.3% | 14.5% |
Game Analysis
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