Betting Lines
| Spread | LSU -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | LSU -155 UNT +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LSU +4 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | LSU -4.9 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.0 (-10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -0.5 (+4.5) | 133.1 (-5.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LSU -2.4 (+1.6) | 135.9 (-7.9) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LSU -1.7 (+2.3) | 137.7 (-9.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LSU -1.5 (+2.5) | 132.9 (-4.9) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 19, 2024 | UNT 84 – 77 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LSU | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 64.4 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#113) | -1.6 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.44 (#344) | -0.65 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.41 (#339) | -0.57 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.295 (#310) | 0.421 (#248) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LSU | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 39.3% | 41.0% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.3% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.0% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 64.5% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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