Betting Lines
| Spread | OMA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | OMA -110 W&M +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OMA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OMA +6 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | W&M -6.2 (+12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (+18.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | W&M -4.3 (+10.3) | 145.9 (+26.1) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | W&M -5.6 (+11.6) | 145.9 (+26.1) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | W&M -5.0 (+11.0) | 146.9 (+25.1) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | W&M -4.9 (+10.9) | 147.4 (+24.6) | 30% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OMA | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 2-13 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#200) | 4.8 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.14 (#282) | 0.23 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#271) | 0.46 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#243) | 0.597 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OMA | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 24.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 17.8% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.7% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 60.3% | 79.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 34.5% |
Game Analysis
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