Betting Lines
| Spread | AF -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | AF -300 W&M +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +9 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | AF -7.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (+7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AF -5.2 (+3.8) | 144.5 (+6.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -5.4 (+3.6) | 139.8 (+11.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AF -6.0 (+3.0) | 140.6 (+10.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AF -5.6 (+3.4) | 141.2 (+9.8) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 4-14 |
| Home | 4-12 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-8 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#122) | 4.8 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#151) | 0.23 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#148) | 0.46 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#169) | 0.597 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.6% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 79.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.9% | 34.5% |
Game Analysis
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