Betting Lines
| Spread | YSU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | YSU -175 UTU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | YSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | YSU +7 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | YSU -1.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.1 (-0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YSU -0.3 (+6.7) | 142.8 (+0.2) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | YSU -0.5 (+6.5) | 144.1 (-1.1) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YSU -0.8 (+6.2) | 146.8 (-3.8) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | YSU | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 7-13 |
| Home | 14-3 | 6-7 |
| Away | 8-7 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.4 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 77.3 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#227) | 4.9 (#86) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#238) | 1.31 (#71) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#236) | 1.66 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.354 (#280) | 0.540 (#141) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | YSU | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.5% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 19.6% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.40 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.0% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 14.8% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 24.8% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 40.9% |
Game Analysis
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