Betting Lines
| Spread | OMA -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | OMA -450 LIN +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OMA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIN +2 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | OMA -10.9 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (-3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OMA -5.9 (-7.9) | 135.2 (+6.8) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OMA -6.2 (-8.2) | 141.4 (+0.6) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OMA -5.8 (-7.8) | 142.8 (-0.8) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OMA -6.4 (-8.4) | 138.7 (+3.3) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OMA | LIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 3-15 |
| Home | 11-3 | 4-10 |
| Away | 2-13 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 63.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#200) | -12.4 (#348) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.14 (#282) | -1.01 (#273) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#271) | -1.48 (#268) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#243) | 0.431 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OMA | LIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 31.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 26.7% |
| REB / G | 24.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 36.0% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 24.1% |
| ORB% | 17.8% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.7% | 59.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 60.3% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 38.6% |
Game Analysis
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