Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | SLU +158 UVM -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SLU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +10 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | UVM -3.1 (-6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (+7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -2.7 (-7.3) | 139.5 (+6.5) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -1.4 (-8.6) | 137.4 (+8.6) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -1.3 (-8.7) | 136.5 (+9.5) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -1.8 (-8.2) | 136.4 (+9.6) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SLU | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 15-1 |
| Home | 8-8 | 16-1 |
| Away | 3-9 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 63.8 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#208) | 1.2 (#148) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#57) | 1.72 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#61) | 2.46 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.694 (#45) | 0.694 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SLU | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 21.4% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 37.1% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.6% | 42.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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