Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -10.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | UCF -600 CSUF +430 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +28 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -14.4 (+13.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (-27.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -11.7 (+16.3) | 141.1 (-25.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -13.0 (+15.0) | 143.0 (-27.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -12.9 (+15.1) | 143.2 (-27.2) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-13 |
| Home | 11-8 | 7-7 |
| Away | 3-7 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#143) | -3.8 (#254) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#171) | -0.52 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#175) | -0.73 (#220) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#133) | 0.438 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 32.8% |
| 3PT% | 27.3% | 20.8% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.61 | 0.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 36.9% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 24.1% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.2% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 51.0% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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