Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
| Money | USA -195 DEN +162 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +7 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | USA -1.1 (+5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.6 (+3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -1.0 (+6.0) | 149.1 (+7.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -1.8 (+5.2) | 151.2 (+5.8) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -0.1 (+6.9) | 158.3 (-1.3) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -0.7 (+7.7) | 152.4 (+4.6) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-10 |
| Home | 11-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 82.1 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#290) | 2.3 (#129) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#104) | 0.08 (#166) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#103) | 0.15 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#123) | 0.448 (#226) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.2% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 20.9% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 42.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.54 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.3% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 22.1% | 38.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 37.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.4% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 10.8% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.9% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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