Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -35.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +30 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -20.8 (+9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -19.0 (+11.0) | 140.1 (+9.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -16.9 (+13.1) | 140.1 (+9.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -18.5 (+11.5) | 140.9 (+9.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -17.0 (+13.0) | 140.3 (+9.7) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-3 | 6-8 |
| Away | 7-4 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 6.9 (#60) | -4.8 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#189) | -0.25 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#181) | -0.44 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#152) | 0.497 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.9% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.9% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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