Betting Lines
| Spread | SHU -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.0 Over |
| Money | UMBC +118 SHU -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +5 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -0.8 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.8 (-3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SHU -0.2 (+5.2) | 159.7 (+5.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SHU -0.5 (+5.5) | 155.6 (+9.4) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SHU -0.5 (+5.5) | 155.8 (+9.2) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SHU -0.6 (+5.6) | 155.7 (+9.3) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | SHU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 10-6 |
| Home | 6-9 | 11-5 |
| Away | 5-12 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#213) | 6.4 (#66) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.78 (#328) | 1.19 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.12 (#302) | 1.48 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#251) | 0.383 (#270) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | SHU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 48.7% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 13.0% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 57.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 63.2% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 12.3% |
Game Analysis
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