Betting Lines
| Spread | SDAK -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | SDAK -335 VMI +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDAK +4 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | VMI -1.6 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDAK -0.7 (+3.3) | 152.1 (+13.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VMI -0.2 (+4.2) | 147.6 (+18.4) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VMI -0.6 (+4.6) | 149.2 (+16.8) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDAK -0.6 (+3.4) | 152.6 (+13.4) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDAK | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 1-17 |
| Home | 8-6 | 4-10 |
| Away | 2-12 | 0-15 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L13 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.5 | 84.9 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#146) | 2.9 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#266) | -0.65 (#231) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.94 (#293) | -0.94 (#235) |
| RPI | 0.302 (#306) | 0.500 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDAK | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 41.6% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 15.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 11.0% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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