Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | CAL -800 MTST +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +3 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | CAL -0.3 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.8 (-34.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -1.9 (-4.9) | 146.9 (-23.9) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -3.4 (-6.4) | 147.7 (-24.7) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -3.7 (-6.7) | 147.1 (-24.1) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-6 | 10-7 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -8.8 (#318) | 0.1 (#170) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.98 (#333) | -0.88 (#255) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.49 (#353) | -0.67 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#206) | 0.312 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 27.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 4.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 13.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 30.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.