Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
| Money | ASU -292 UML +235 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +2 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | UML -7.4 (+9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.6 (+14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -4.6 (+6.6) | 137.6 (+2.4) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -5.4 (+7.4) | 132.0 (+8.0) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UML -6.4 (+8.4) | 130.7 (+9.3) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -5.4 (+7.4) | 134.5 (+5.5) | 31% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 11-5 |
| Home | 10-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#269) | 12.2 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#213) | 2.86 (#11) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#219) | 3.88 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#207) | 0.663 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.5% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 41.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.5% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.9% | 38.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.6% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.3% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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