I'm gonna tell you how it's gonna be. "Not Fade Away"-The Rolling Stones
Desert Financial Arena · November 17, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread ASU -7.0 Away covered
O/U 145.0 Under
Money ASU -292 / UML +235
Model Predictions
Spread Total ASU win
Actual ASU +2 140 Won
Massey UML -7.4 (+9.4) — —
Massey Totals — 125.6 (+14.4) —
Bradley-Terry — — 17% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 8% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ UML -4.6 (+6.6) 137.6 (+2.4) 39% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML UML -5.4 (+7.4) 132.0 (+8.0) 25% ✗
Baseline ML UML -6.4 (+8.4) 130.7 (+9.3) 25% ✗
Baseline Plus ML UML -5.4 (+7.4) 134.5 (+5.5) 31% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ASU UML
Overall 14-18 22-10
Conference 8-12 11-5
Home 10-5 12-3
Away 3-8 10-7
Neutral 1-5 0-0
Last 5 1-1 2-0
Streak L4 L1
Avg Pts For 69.0 77.0
Avg Pts Against 74.0 72.2
Massey -4.4 (#269) 12.2 (#17)
Bradley-Terry -0.43 (#213) 2.86 (#11)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.72 (#219) 3.88 (#15)
RPI 0.469 (#207) 0.663 (#63)
Shooting & Four Factors ASU UML
FG% 34.5% 46.6%
3PT% 28.2% 25.0%
REB / G 37.5 41.5
OREB / G 9.5 11.0
AST / TO 0.96 1.05
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 39.5% 50.0%
TOV% 17.1% 15.1%
ORB% 22.4% 30.6%
FT Rate 29.1% 18.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 41.9% 38.4%
Opp TOV% 23.6% 18.2%
DRB% 67.5% 68.5%
Opp FT Rate 16.3% 18.4%

Game Analysis

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