Betting Lines
| Spread | LIB -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
| Money | LIB -140 FUR +118 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIB +14 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | LIB -1.8 (+12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (+8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIB -2.2 (+11.8) | 148.2 (+13.8) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIB -1.7 (+12.3) | 143.8 (+18.2) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIB -3.4 (+10.6) | 141.0 (+21.0) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIB | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 2-8 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 76.7 |
| Massey | 6.8 (#61) | 5.0 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#29) | 0.93 (#97) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.81 (#17) | 1.40 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.938 (#7) | 1.000 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIB | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.7% | 52.1% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 41.4% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 51.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.8% | 60.3% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 5.5% | 15.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 12.3% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 84.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 7.7% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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