Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | YALE +140 COLG -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | YALE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | YALE +18 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | YALE -5.6 (+12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.6 (-32.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YALE -3.0 (+15.0) | 144.8 (-26.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | YALE -2.9 (+15.1) | 146.3 (-28.3) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YALE -4.1 (+13.9) | 147.1 (-29.1) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | YALE | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 16-2 |
| Home | 9-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 9-6 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.9 | 64.9 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#110) | -2.1 (#214) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#74) | -0.19 (#190) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#85) | -0.16 (#187) |
| RPI | 0.800 (#16) | 0.479 (#197) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | YALE | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 43.8% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 33.3% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.1% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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