Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | ULM +400 LT -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +10 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | ULM -1.0 (-11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (+0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -0.2 (-9.8) | 138.0 (-2.0) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ULM -2.6 (-12.6) | 135.8 (+0.2) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -2.5 (-7.5) | 132.7 (+3.3) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 22, 2022 | LT 79 – 58 ULM |
| Nov 25, 2021 | LT 96 – 74 ULM |
| Dec 23, 2020 | LT 68 – 57 ULM |
| Dec 4, 2020 | LT 78 – 62 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | LT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-4 |
| Home | 8-6 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-12 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 65.6 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#239) | 5.2 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.35 (#20) | -0.23 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.88 (#14) | -0.21 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.672 (#55) | 0.500 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | LT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 31.2% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 36.1% |
| FT Rate | 12.1% | 12.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 56.2% | 100.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 45.1% |
Game Analysis
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