Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +22 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | LT -11.8 (+10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (+21.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -12.5 (+9.5) | 149.8 (+20.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -8.2 (+13.8) | 148.1 (+21.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LT -8.6 (+13.4) | 149.0 (+21.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -9.9 (+12.1) | 149.0 (+21.0) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 17, 2023 | LT 73 – 63 ULM |
| Nov 22, 2022 | LT 79 – 58 ULM |
| Dec 23, 2020 | LT 68 – 57 ULM |
| Dec 4, 2020 | LT 78 – 62 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LT | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#243) | -8.2 (#311) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.01 (#106) | -0.09 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.31 (#113) | -0.22 (#191) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#165) | 0.511 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LT | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 24.0% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 63.6% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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