Betting Lines
| Spread | QUIN -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | ARMY +240 QUIN -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARMY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | QUIN +9 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | ARMY -2.9 (-11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (-15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | QUIN -1.0 (-8.0) | 131.4 (-6.4) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARMY -0.2 (-9.2) | 138.5 (-13.5) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARMY -1.0 (-10.0) | 137.7 (-12.7) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | QUIN -0.4 (-8.6) | 135.5 (-10.5) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARMY | QUIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 15-5 |
| Home | 6-11 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-10 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 59.9 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.7 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#325) | -3.2 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.72 (#324) | 0.12 (#161) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.35 (#313) | 0.11 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.396 (#265) | 0.531 (#150) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARMY | QUIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 33.9% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.4% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 10.9% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.9% | 58.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 11.5% |
| DRB% | 84.8% | 78.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 15.5% |
Game Analysis
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