Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
| Money | KSU +118 PROV -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KSU +3 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -5.2 (+8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (+0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -3.0 (+6.0) | 144.7 (-1.7) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -3.5 (+6.5) | 139.9 (+3.1) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -4.1 (+7.1) | 140.5 (+2.5) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -3.0 (+6.0) | 144.2 (-1.2) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KSU | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-3 | 14-5 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 68.8 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#251) | 1.6 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#286) | 0.81 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.34 (#312) | 1.10 (#111) |
| RPI | 0.393 (#269) | 0.528 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KSU | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 15.7 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 39.2% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 37.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.5% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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