Betting Lines
| Spread | UNF -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | UNF +100 PRES +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRES +12 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | UNF -6.4 (-18.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNF -4.0 (-16.0) | 146.1 (+3.9) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNF -3.7 (-15.7) | 142.4 (+7.6) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNF -4.3 (-16.3) | 142.6 (+7.4) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNF -3.0 (-15.0) | 145.1 (+4.9) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNF | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 6-10 |
| Home | 11-5 | 8-7 |
| Away | 5-11 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 74.6 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#184) | 2.2 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#172) | 2.90 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#243) | 4.42 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.237 (#339) | 0.729 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNF | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 28.5 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 5.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 21.0% | 18.3% |
| FT Rate | 42.2% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 37.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.5% | 34.5% |
Game Analysis
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