Betting Lines
| Spread | BRY -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | BU +275 BRY -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +16 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | BU -8.7 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 114.1 (+59.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -4.1 (+11.9) | 139.5 (+34.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -3.7 (+12.3) | 127.8 (+46.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BU -4.4 (+11.6) | 127.7 (+46.3) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BU -6.0 (+10.0) | 131.5 (+42.5) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BU | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-5 |
| Home | 9-7 | 11-3 |
| Away | 7-10 | 8-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 75.3 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#250) | -3.1 (#242) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#297) | -2.03 (#334) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.88 (#289) | -2.59 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.285 (#314) | 0.276 (#320) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BU | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 33.9% | 35.8% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.9% | 42.1% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 17.6% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 13.1% | 12.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 36.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.1% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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