Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | DAY -120 SJU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +7 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -6.7 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.4 (+36.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -4.2 (+2.8) | 131.7 (+37.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -3.5 (+3.5) | 133.1 (+35.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -3.9 (+3.1) | 133.1 (+35.9) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -4.8 (+2.2) | 128.7 (+40.3) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-0 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#114) | -3.5 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#102) | 0.33 (#146) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#90) | 0.09 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.617 (#93) | 0.575 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 41.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 19.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 47.2% |
| FT Rate | 31.5% | 16.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 60.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.