Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -24.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Under |
| Money | UVA -4500 TXSO +1550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +29 | 95 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -27.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.4 (-33.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -24.5 (+4.5) | 127.0 (-32.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -20.1 (+8.9) | 130.8 (-35.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -28.3 (+0.7) | 133.1 (-38.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -30.0 (-1.0) | 127.8 (-32.8) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-2 | 7-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.9 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 59.8 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#40) | -9.7 (#329) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#25) | -1.44 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.23 (#25) | -2.32 (#309) |
| RPI | 0.662 (#64) | 0.062 (#356) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 30.9% |
| 3PT% | 43.4% | 18.9% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 43.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 2.36 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 34.6% |
| TOV% | 11.5% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.9% | 9.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.0% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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