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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
19–16 on winners
spread MAE 12.3
35 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Denver
@
Nicholls
|
+2.4 | 163.6 | 59% | 91–85 | ✗ |
Delaware
@
Delaware State
|
-9.1 | 136.0 | 20% | 78–67 | ✓ |
Canisius
@
Cleveland State
|
+11.7 | 153.6 | 86% | 61–71 | ✓ |
Richmond
@
Boston College
|
+6.1 | 153.1 | 71% | 61–68 | ✓ |
Coppin State
@
Louisville
|
+18.0 | 159.7 | 95% | 41–61 | ✓ |
Saint Peter's
@
Fairleigh Dickinson
|
-1.7 | 141.4 | 44% | 70–71 | ✗ |
Princeton
@
Duquesne
|
+4.1 | 148.4 | 65% | 70–67 | ✗ |
Utah Valley
@
Charlotte
|
-0.2 | 139.7 | 49% | 45–62 | ✗ |
South Carolina Upstate
@
East Carolina
|
+17.8 | 152.6 | 95% | 83–81 | ✗ |
Merrimack
@
Ohio State
|
+6.1 | 141.9 | 71% | 52–76 | ✓ |
Central Michigan
@
South Florida
|
+34.3 | 148.8 | 100% | 68–63 | ✗ |
Radford
@
VCU
|
+0.2 | 138.5 | 51% | 50–73 | ✓ |
Binghamton
@
Loyola Maryland
|
+16.6 | 149.6 | 93% | 63–57 | ✗ |
Cornell
@
George Mason
|
+8.1 | 138.9 | 77% | 83–90 | ✓ |
Evansville
@
Southeast Missouri State
|
+10.8 | 146.7 | 84% | 76–57 | ✗ |
Florida International
@
Houston Christian
|
+7.7 | 161.1 | 76% | 83–74 | ✗ |
Longwood
@
Maryland Eastern Shore
|
+9.2 | 149.5 | 80% | 80–61 | ✗ |
Eastern Illinois
@
Illinois State
|
+20.1 | 154.1 | 97% | 61–69 | ✓ |
Stony Brook
@
Nebraska
|
+19.9 | 135.9 | 96% | 63–84 | ✓ |
Georgetown
@
Rutgers
|
+10.9 | 136.3 | 84% | 60–71 | ✓ |
Rice
@
Texas
|
+23.9 | 155.3 | 99% | 64–80 | ✓ |
SE Louisiana
@
BYU
|
+19.9 | 149.6 | 96% | 48–105 | ✓ |
Northern Arizona
@
Seattle U
|
+24.2 | 134.9 | 99% | 62–60 | ✗ |
Long Island University
@
UCLA
|
+27.8 | 135.0 | 99% | 58–78 | ✓ |
Pacific
@
Nevada
|
+19.1 | 144.1 | 96% | 39–88 | ✓ |
Morgan State
@
Fresno State
|
+21.4 | 151.6 | 97% | 68–87 | ✓ |
Charleston
@
Vermont
|
+9.8 | 139.0 | 81% | 64–73 | ✓ |
St. John's
@
North Texas
|
+4.9 | 155.1 | 67% | 53–52 | ✗ |
Saint Louis
@
Wyoming
|
+4.8 | 143.0 | 67% | 79–69 | ✗ |
Northwestern State
@
Maine
|
+0.8 | 145.6 | 53% | 65–78 | ✓ |
Dayton
@
LSU
|
+3.4 | 144.4 | 62% | 70–67 | ✗ |
Denver
@
SIU Edwardsville
|
-9.6 | 144.9 | 19% | 74–77 | ✗ |
Oklahoma State
@
St. Bonaventure
|
-1.6 | 136.9 | 44% | 64–66 | ✗ |
Lindenwood
@
Air Force
|
+26.5 | 137.9 | 99% | 58–76 | ✓ |
Houston
@
Towson
|
-14.0 | 119.7 | 10% | 65–49 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.