Betting Lines
| Spread | SEMO -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | SEMO -125 EVAN +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEMO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EVAN +19 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | SEMO -9.2 (-28.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (-13.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEMO -1.8 (-20.8) | 142.8 (-9.8) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SEMO -2.8 (-21.8) | 143.0 (-10.0) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -0.4 (-19.4) | 143.7 (-10.7) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 25, 2023 | EVAN 93 – 74 SEMO |
| Nov 17, 2022 | SEMO 67 – 61 EVAN |
| Dec 9, 2021 | SEMO 75 – 73 EVAN |
| Dec 16, 2020 | EVAN 66 – 63 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEMO | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 6-14 |
| Home | 8-7 | 10-5 |
| Away | 1-14 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-0 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 74.0 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#284) | -4.8 (#273) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#238) | 0.11 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#238) | 0.06 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#156) | 0.250 (#315) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEMO | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 33.8% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.8% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 15.2% |
| FT Rate | 12.8% | 41.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.8% | 57.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 27.7% |
| DRB% | 64.6% | 83.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.5% | 7.7% |
Game Analysis
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