Betting Lines
| Spread | EVAN -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Under |
| Money | EVAN -210 SEMO +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EVAN +3 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | EVAN -3.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (-18.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EVAN -1.7 (+1.3) | 138.9 (-9.9) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EVAN -2.8 (+0.2) | 145.0 (-16.0) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EVAN -2.5 (+0.5) | 146.3 (-17.3) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EVAN -2.2 (+0.8) | 144.5 (-15.5) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 25, 2023 | EVAN 93 – 74 SEMO |
| Nov 16, 2023 | EVAN 76 – 57 SEMO |
| Nov 17, 2022 | SEMO 67 – 61 EVAN |
| Dec 9, 2021 | SEMO 75 – 73 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-16 | 11-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-11 |
| Home | 8-4 | 7-6 |
| Away | 1-10 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#265) | -4.8 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#227) | -0.67 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.72 (#237) | -1.23 (#213) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#242) | 0.464 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 21.9% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 85.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 33.3% |
Game Analysis
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