Betting Lines
| Spread | EVAN -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | EVAN -120 SEMO +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEMO +6 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | EVAN -5.8 (-11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.9 (-9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EVAN -5.6 (-11.6) | 140.0 (-12.0) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | EVAN -5.5 (-11.5) | 141.2 (-13.2) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EVAN -3.8 (-9.8) | 140.2 (-12.2) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 25, 2023 | EVAN 93 – 74 SEMO |
| Nov 16, 2023 | EVAN 76 – 57 SEMO |
| Dec 9, 2021 | SEMO 75 – 73 EVAN |
| Dec 16, 2020 | EVAN 66 – 63 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-27 | 19-17 |
| Conference | 1-19 | 10-8 |
| Home | 3-10 | 9-4 |
| Away | 1-14 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 77.6 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#126) | 5.6 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#65) | 1.42 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#70) | 2.01 (#65) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#113) | 0.500 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 35.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 12.5% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 23.2% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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