Betting Lines
| O/U | 131.0 Over |
| Money | SEMO +105 EVAN -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEMO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEMO +2 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | SEMO -3.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (+2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EVAN -0.2 (+2.2) | 140.9 (+7.1) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEMO -1.1 (+0.9) | 143.0 (+5.0) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SEMO -0.9 (+1.1) | 144.2 (+3.8) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -0.8 (+1.2) | 143.6 (+4.4) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 25, 2023 | EVAN 93 – 74 SEMO |
| Nov 16, 2023 | EVAN 76 – 57 SEMO |
| Nov 17, 2022 | SEMO 67 – 61 EVAN |
| Dec 16, 2020 | EVAN 66 – 63 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEMO | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 6-24 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 2-16 |
| Home | 8-5 | 4-9 |
| Away | 5-10 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 58.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.2 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#292) | -6.2 (#280) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.60 (#291) | -1.74 (#304) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.57 (#300) | -1.91 (#280) |
| RPI | 0.416 (#297) | 0.400 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEMO | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 29.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 6.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 19.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.0% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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