Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | FDU +130 SPU -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FDU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FDU +1 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | SPU -2.4 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (-0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -3.9 (+4.9) | 136.4 (+4.6) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -1.2 (+2.2) | 138.1 (+2.9) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -2.5 (+3.5) | 139.7 (+1.3) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -3.3 (+4.3) | 139.1 (+1.9) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 8, 2025 | SPU 93 – 83 FDU |
| Nov 27, 2024 | SPU 78 – 76 FDU |
| Nov 27, 2022 | SPU 77 – 63 FDU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FDU | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 12-8 |
| Home | 7-7 | 8-5 |
| Away | 8-9 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 63.8 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#251) | 8.9 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#98) | 1.21 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#110) | 1.81 (#68) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#151) | 0.592 (#105) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FDU | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.2% | 38.9% |
| 3PT% | 25.9% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 17.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.9% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 24.1% |
| ORB% | 17.6% | 51.5% |
| FT Rate | 31.7% | 34.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 24.2% |
| DRB% | 59.3% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 50.0% |
Game Analysis
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