Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | SPU -250 FDU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +14 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | SPU -8.6 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.2 (-20.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -11.3 (+2.7) | 144.1 (-4.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -7.1 (+6.9) | 151.7 (-11.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -7.1 (+6.9) | 151.1 (-11.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -7.0 (+7.0) | 149.4 (-9.4) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 8, 2025 | SPU 93 – 83 FDU |
| Nov 27, 2024 | SPU 78 – 76 FDU |
| Nov 16, 2023 | FDU 71 – 70 SPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 21-16 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 10-6 |
| Home | 8-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 60.9 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#270) | -6.9 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#228) | -1.52 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#234) | -2.53 (#300) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#269) | 0.346 (#341) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 15.2 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.0% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 38.4% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 57.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 61.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 42.3% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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