Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | FDU +290 SPU -380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FDU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +2 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | SPU -7.3 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -5.0 (+3.0) | 140.7 (+13.3) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -7.4 (+5.4) | 142.6 (+11.4) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -4.7 (+2.7) | 144.2 (+9.8) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -3.4 (+1.4) | 144.9 (+9.1) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 8, 2025 | SPU 93 – 83 FDU |
| Nov 16, 2023 | FDU 71 – 70 SPU |
| Nov 27, 2022 | SPU 77 – 63 FDU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FDU | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 12-16 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 7-13 |
| Home | 9-5 | 6-6 |
| Away | 4-15 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 64.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 66.3 |
| Massey | -13.4 (#348) | -0.1 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#258) | -0.43 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.69 (#265) | -0.27 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#284) | 0.479 (#207) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FDU | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.8% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.1% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 61.9% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 40.2% |
Game Analysis
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