Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | SPU -280 FDU +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +10 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | SPU -19.7 (-9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.5 (+39.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -4.2 (+5.8) | 134.0 (+42.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -5.9 (+4.1) | 131.0 (+45.0) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 27, 2024 | SPU 78 – 76 FDU |
| Nov 16, 2023 | FDU 71 – 70 SPU |
| Nov 27, 2022 | SPU 77 – 63 FDU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-12 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-1 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-10 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 65.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#205) | -4.8 (#235) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#217) | -0.29 (#153) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#213) | -0.42 (#169) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 27.5% | 32.7% |
| 3PT% | 26.1% | 22.2% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 33.3% | 38.5% |
| TOV% | 24.4% | 25.7% |
| ORB% | 38.5% | 20.0% |
| FT Rate | 31.4% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 61.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 12.6% |
| DRB% | 60.7% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 66.7% | 9.0% |
Game Analysis
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